Rising Silver Price, Critical Mineral Momentum, Remonetization 2.0, and a Coming Shortage

Discovering the Silver Renaissance: Unlocking the Potential of an Overlooked Asset

Silver's Histrory as Money Exceeds that of Gold

For centuries, silver has been the metal that defies categorization. It serves as both currency and component, a store of value and a circuit pathway. In 2025, these roles are converging in a manner that resembles a structural reset rather than a typical market cycle.

Prices are skyrocketing. Policymakers are striving to elevate silver's strategic significance.

Engineers consistently develop ways to reduce the amount of silver used per device, yet they face overwhelming demand for more devices. At the same time, a subtle remonetization experiment is unfolding in state capitals and online. Together, this constitutes the most fascinating silver story in a generation.

Recent update: a price that now aligns with the fundamentals

After trailing behind gold for years, silver surged past the mid-$30s this summer, reaching heights not seen in over ten years. On June 5, spot silver surged to approximately $35.82 per ounce, fueled by industrial demand and ongoing supply shortages. Although the gold-silver ratio is still high by historical norms, it is decreasing, indicating that silver is finally gaining attention beyond gold's influence.

Why now? Because the metal’s two demand engines—industry and investment—are firing at the same time. Exchange-traded product (ETP) flows have turned positive and vault holdings are climbing, even as factories keep pulling metal for photovoltaics, electronics, and electrification. London vault data show silver stocks rising into Q2 2025, while ETP inflows and new accounts (especially in Asia) add a sticky layer of discretionary demand. LBMAThe Silver Institute

"Silver's New Role at the Critical-Minerals Table: Currently Being Added"

In late August, the U.S. government released its draft update for the 2025 Critical Minerals List. The USGS economic-effects model suggested adding six commodities, including silver, to the shortlist along with potash, silicon, copper, rhenium, and lead. This methodology evaluates how a trade disruption in a particular mineral could impact the U.S. GDP, highlighting silver as a significant vulnerability. A Federal Register notice invited public comments on a proposed list featuring 54 minerals, citing the new USGS analysis as the foundation for the draft. In other words, silver isn't "on" the final list yet, but the process has advanced significantly. U.S. Geological SurveyFederal Register

This situation is not occurring in isolation. Canada's 2025 strategy for critical minerals includes copper and other elements but excludes silver. Similarly, the EU's 2023 Critical Raw Materials list, established through the CRMA, also left out silver, although Brussels acknowledged copper as "strategic." Consequently, the change in the U.S. stance represents a significant deviation: Washington is indicating that silver's supply-chain risk and macroeconomic exposure have now reached a "critical" level.

The paradox at the heart of silver supply

If you ask a miner why silver supply doesn’t surge when price spikes, you’ll hear a single word: by-product. Most silver is produced as a secondary revenue stream at lead-zinc, copper, and gold mines; the host metal sets the mine plan, not the price of silver. So even a 20–30% rally in silver barely nudges output. The USGS puts it plainly: silver is “primarily obtained” as a by-product, which mechanically flattens supply responsiveness. That rigidity is colliding with multi-year demand growth. U.S. Geological Survey

The Silver Institute’s 2025 outlook and Metals Focus data map it out: a market running consecutive annual deficits since 2021, with cumulative stock drawdowns approaching 800 million ounces by the end of 2025—even after mine supply ticked higher last year. This is what a structural shortfall looks like: small annual gaps adding up to a chasm. The Silver Institute+1

Visual Capitalist

Solar is more economical

Engineers have been on a multi-year sprint to thrift silver from solar cells. In 2024 alone, average silver loadings per watt fell by more than 20% as manufacturers shifted to new metallization techniques (from laser-doped to LECO optimization), zero-busbar designs, and copper electroplating. Even with those gains, record global installations overwhelmed thrifted use, pushing PV’s total silver consumption to fresh highs. Metals Focus expects another 10–12% decline in loadings this year—but the sheer scale of deployments keeps PV demand near records. This is the paradox: per-unit intensity is down, but unit counts are exploding. The Silver Institute

Beyond solar, electrical/electronics and automotive electrification are the stealth story. Electrical and electronics demand has added roughly 90 Moz in just two years, while EVs embed multiples of silver used in legacy drivetrains. The result is a broad industrial pull that doesn’t fade when coin buying cools. The Silver Institute

Remonetization 2.0: not a new silver standard, but new rails

When people hear “remonetization,” they imagine a return to silver coins in every cash drawer. That’s not what’s happening. Instead, two practical rails are forming.

First, state-level legal tender frameworks are re-opening the door to spending precious metals through digital interfaces. Texas’s new law allows residents to use gold and silver for everyday transactions via the state depository and debit-style systems—a model other states are exploring to varying degrees. The Washington Post, Houston Chronicle, and others frame this as a hedge against inflation and policy risk; critics debate tax treatment and operational complexity. Either way, the rails are being built. The Washington PostChron

Second, tokenization is pushing precious metals into programmable finance. The Bank for International Settlements’ 2025 Annual Report outlines how tokenized platforms can sit atop central bank money and public debt markets—exactly the kind of financial plumbing where metal-backed tokens and ETPs can plug in. Gold dominates this frontier so far, but silver is beginning to follow, with new tokenized products and rising ETP holdings signaling an incremental remonetization via markets, not mints. Bank for International SettlementsThe Silver Institute

How the critical-mineral label reshapes the chessboard

If silver makes the U.S. final list, the effect is less about a single headline and more about a durable policy stack:

1. Federal agencies are instructed to identify and address risks in supply chains, which involves reforming permits and assessing strategic reserves.

   
   

2. Funding becomes more available for upstream projects, midstream processing, and recycling innovations, as the "critical" designation triggers programs, guarantees, and prioritization.

   
   

3. Trade takes on a strategic role. With Mexico as a top producer and China as a key processor for various tech components, silver-intensive value chains will be incorporated into the larger geopolitics of clean-energy manufacturing.

   
   

Even if Ottawa and Brussels don’t label silver “critical,” the U.S. move alone will redirect investment flows. Some of that money will chase primary silver deposits; some will target process innovation (electroplated copper contacts, paste recycling, and high-throughput stencil printing that preserves efficiency with less metal).

Three blind spots that keep tripping up silver narratives

1. Substitution doesn't come without trade-offs. Using copper contacts and adjusting alloys can lower the immediate need for silver, but this often impacts efficiency, reliability, or lifespan. Manufacturers only reduce silver use when performance permits. This is why reductions happen in phases rather than a steady decline, and why photovoltaic systems still consumed a record amount of silver last year despite intensive engineering efforts.. The Silver Institute

   
   

2. The concept of recyclability is complex. Jewelry and bars are easily recycled, but silver found in solder joints, circuit traces, and solar cell fingers is often not. Given current prices and dispersed end-of-life disposal, a significant amount of industrial silver ends up in landfills or is lost in smelting. Deficits continue because we fail to effectively "close the loop."

   
   

3. Supply elasticity is constrained by other metals. To increase silver supply by 50–100 million ounces, significant investments in expanding lead-zinc and copper production would be necessary. These expansions must also overcome environmental, social, and commodity-price challenges associated with those host metals. Even optimistic silver prices cannot easily overcome these limitations. U.S. Geological Survey

What could invalidate the thesis?

Genuinely honest bullish arguments include exit strategies. Keep an eye out for these:

• Deep global slowdown that dents electronics, EVs, and PV build-outs at once.

• Change in copper-plating yields that slashes silver loadings faster than installations grow.

• Policy shock that moves silver off the U.S. draft critical list before it’s finalized (less likely given the published methodology, but within the realm). U.S. Geological Survey

The base case, restated

Silver's outlook for 2025 is as follows: prices are aligning with underlying fundamentals; the U.S. is in the process of including silver on its critical-minerals list; industrial demand remains strong despite increased efforts in resource conservation; and investment demand has shifted back to a net positive. The deficits are real and represent multi-year, cumulative stock reductions as documented by industry data. Remonetization won't resemble 1879; instead, it will involve debit systems linked to vaults, ETFs with increasing shares, and tokens settling across institutional platforms. If that seems unromantic, that's fine. It's also an investment opportunity. The Silver Institute+1

References

1. Nassar, Nedal T., et al. Methodology and Technical Input for the 2025 U.S. List of Critical Minerals—Assessing the Potential Effects of Mineral Commodity Supply Chain Disruptions on the U.S. Economy. U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 2025-1047, 2025.

2. “2025 Draft List of Critical Minerals.” Federal Register, 26 Aug. 2025.

3. “Department of the Interior Releases Draft 2025 List of Critical Minerals.” U.S. Geological Survey, 26 Aug. 2025.

4. “Global Silver Market Forecast to Remain in a Sizeable Deficit in 2025.” The Silver Institute, 29 Jan. 2025.

5. Metals Focus. World Silver Survey 2025 (Launch Presentation). The Silver Institute, 16 Apr. 2025.

6. “Silver Surges Past $35/oz Level to Hit a More Than 13-Year High.” Reuters, 5 June 2025.

7. “LBMA Precious Metals Market Report: Q2 2025.” London Bullion Market Association, 2025.

8. “Global Silver Investment Heightens in 2025.” The Silver Institute, Aug. 2025.

9. “Critical Raw Materials.” European Commission, 2023 List.

10. “Critical Minerals: An Opportunity for Canada.” Government of Canada, 5 May 2025.

11. “III. The Next-Generation Monetary and Financial System.” Bank for International Settlements, Annual Economic Report 2025, 24 June 2025.

12. “New State Laws Pave the Way for Using Gold as Legal Tender.” The Washington Post, 17 July 2025.

13. “New Texas Law Means You Can Pay with More Than Dollars and Cents.” Houston Chronicle, 30 June 2025.

14. “Silver.” Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. U.S. Geological Survey, March 2025.

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