Will the G7 Nations' Coal Agreement Lead to a Greener Future or Economic Setbacks?
- Mark Lafond, RA
- Sep 11, 2024
- 7 min read
Updated: Sep 20
G7 Nations' Historic Agreement: Phasing Out Coal for a Sustainable Future
The Group of Seven, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, represents a large share of global economic output and policy influence. In April 2024, at Turin, G7 climate, energy, and environment ministers reached a first ever consensus to phase out existing unabated coal power during the first half of the 2030s.
The commitment focuses on unabated coal, in other words coal generation that does not capture and permanently store its carbon dioxide, and allows limited flexibility if a different date is demonstrably consistent with a 1.5 degree pathway and national net zero plans. The agreement is framed as part of a broader effort to transition power systems toward clean energy while protecting energy security and economic resilience. [1][2][3][4]
Earth.org reported the decision and its context on April 30, 2024, highlighting the link to the COP28 call to transition away from fossil fuels and to phase out unabated coal power. The report underscored the political significance of a unified G7 timeline after years of divergent national approaches. [5]
Details of the Agreement
The Turin communiqué sets an objective to end existing unabated coal power in energy systems during the first half of the 2030s. It encourages accelerated renewable deployment, improved efficiency, expanded grids, storage, and demand side flexibility, and it references just transition support for affected workers and regions. The language also notes that carbon capture and storage may play a role for some members, but that the central thrust is to replace unabated coal with low emission sources. A later draft leaders’ statement reiterated the coal phaseout framing and the broader transition away from fossil fuels this decade. [1][2][9]
Rationale for Coal Phaseout
Coal is the most carbon intensive fuel in the power sector, and the science is clear that deep cuts must occur this decade to keep the 1.5 degree limit within reach. The IPCC’s 1.5 degree assessments set out pathways that include rapid power sector decarbonization, large scale renewables, electrification, and reductions in non carbon dioxide climate forcers. The AR6 synthesis emphasizes that all 1.5 degree pathways require both strong mitigation and some degree of carbon removal, which is not a substitute for fast near term emission reductions from power generation. [6][7][8]
Global Energy Landscape
Renewable power additions have grown rapidly and increasingly outpace fossil additions. The International Energy Agency’s Renewables 2024 analysis projects annual global renewable capacity additions rising from the record levels of 2024 toward nearly 935 gigawatts by 2030, with solar and wind providing the overwhelming majority of growth due to cost trends and supportive policies. These trajectories indicate that replacing coal with clean generation is technically and economically feasible at scale, provided that grid buildout, interconnection reforms, and storage keep pace. [6]
Environmental and Climate Impact
Retiring unabated coal units reduces carbon dioxide emissions and cuts sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and mercury, improving air quality and public health. In the United States, new federal standards adopted in April 2024 require coal plants that do not retire on specified timelines to either meet stringent emission limits or deploy technologies such as carbon capture. These rules, combined with market trends and state policies, are expected to accelerate retirements and yield large health benefits and climate gains. [10][11][12][13]
Challenges and Opportunities
The coal transition raises real challenges for communities that depend on coal mining, rail, and power plant employment. A credible plan must include worker retraining, pension and health support, local tax base replacement, and targeted economic development. At the same time, the buildout of renewables, storage, transmission, and advanced grid services presents durable employment opportunities in manufacturing, construction, and operations. Recent analysis suggests that redeveloping former coal assets can speed interconnection and repurpose skilled labor. [6][12]
Potential Impact on the Global Economy
Short term adjustments can be uneven across regions, yet the long term macro effects of clean energy investment point to increased energy security, reduced fuel price volatility, and innovation driven productivity gains. Grid modernization and storage smooth variability, while diversified clean portfolios reduce exposure to single fuel disruptions. The coal phaseout also lowers stranded asset risks for investors and utilities, and can catalyze domestic industries around power electronics, advanced materials, and digital grid services. [6][9]
Implications for Global Energy Security
Replacing coal with a diversified set of clean resources strengthens resilience. Solar and wind are widely distributed, nuclear and hydropower provide firm capacity in some systems, and demand side management, storage, and interregional transmission reduce the likelihood that any single shock cascades into widespread outages. The G7 framing links coal exit to security by reducing dependence on finite fuels and geopolitical chokepoints. [1][2]
Role of International Cooperation
The agreement emphasizes cooperation on finance, technology transfer, capacity building, and just transition partnerships. Progress in G7 power systems, coupled with concessional finance and risk mitigation for emerging markets, can help accelerate coal to clean switches elsewhere. Making good on these elements is essential, since global coal power capacity is still growing in some regions, and global goals depend on broad participation and support. [1][2][14][15][16][17]
Public Health Benefits
Coal phaseout reduces hospitalizations, lost work days, and premature mortality linked to fine particulates and other pollutants. In Canada, phasing out conventional coal power is projected to eliminate more than 12 million tonnes of greenhouse gases by 2030 and deliver substantial co benefits for air quality. Similar benefits appear in U.S. regulatory analyses and public health summaries of power sector rules. These gains compound over time as cleaner power displaces combustion in transport and buildings through electrification. [10][11][12]
Ethical Imperatives
Phasing out unabated coal aligns with principles of intergenerational equity and environmental justice. The heaviest burdens of climate change and poor air quality often fall on low income communities and future generations that contributed least to the problem. Acting now in wealthy economies with mature capital markets and low cost clean options is ethically consistent and practically necessary to keep global temperature goals achievable. [6][7][8]
National Timelines and Caveats
Although the G7 set a collective coal exit for the first half of the 2030s, national timelines vary. The United Kingdom has already ended coal power generation, with the last station, Ratcliffe on Soar, closing on September 30, 2024. France has revised its coal end date to 2027 as a winter backup while accelerating clean capacity. Italy targets 2025 for coal exit, with exceptions on Sardinia that could extend to 2027 depending on system readiness.
Canada has a 2030 federal coal phaseout. Germany’s coal phaseout is set in law for no later than 2038, with discussion about 2030 that is not yet codified. Japan has committed to phase out unabated coal by 2035, is moving to retire inefficient coal by 2030, and has pursued co firing and efficiency measures, though international assessments argue that a faster end date would better align with 1.5 degrees.
In the United States, there is no federal coal end date, but recent EPA rules, market dynamics, and state policies imply most remaining coal retires or controls emissions on compliance timelines extending into the 2030s. These differences explain why the G7 language includes flexibility while preserving the 1.5 degree anchor. [18][19][20][21][22][23][11][24][10][12][13]
Coal Tracker
Despite progress, global coal capacity still inched higher in 2024 as retirements were outpaced by new builds in a few countries. Global Energy Monitor’s Boom and Bust Coal 2025 reports a net capacity increase of about 18.8 gigawatts in 2024, the smallest annual rise in two decades, and documents that most new coal commissioning has concentrated in China and India, which accounted for the vast majority of new capacity in the first half of 2025.
The Global Coal Plant Tracker provides unit level data on operating, retired, and proposed coal plants and is updated semiannually. These resources are useful to monitor whether G7 coal retirements are matched by global progress. [14][15][16][17]
Conclusion
The G7’s coal decision is not a finish line, it is a floor. The explicit timeline for phasing out existing unabated coal in the first half of the 2030s marks a meaningful shift in expectations for advanced economies and sends a signal to markets, regulators, and utilities. Delivering on the pledge requires accelerated renewables, storage, grid investment, and just transition programs, along with consistent policy execution. If implemented well, the G7 coal exit can improve public health, reduce climate risk, and strengthen energy security, while creating durable economic opportunity in the clean energy economy. [1][2][3][6][10]
Works Cited
G7 Italy. “Climate, Energy and Environment Ministers’ Meeting Communiqué, Turin, April 29–30, 2024.” Presidency of the Council of Ministers, 30 Apr. 2024.
Colson, Thomas. “G7 Agree Deal to Quit Coal by 2035, but with Caveat.” Reuters, 30 Apr. 2024.
Associated Press. “G7 Nations Commit to Phasing Out Coal by 2035 but Give Japan Some Flexibility.” AP News, 30 Apr. 2024.
U.S. Department of Energy. “G7 Energy Ministers Achieve Breakthroughs on Unabated Coal Phaseout, Global Energy Storage, and More.” 9 May 2024.
Earth.Org. “G7 Countries Agree to Exit from Coal by 2035.” 30 Apr. 2024.
International Energy Agency. Renewables 2024. IEA, 2024.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Warming of 1.5°C. IPCC, 2018.
Hausfather, Zeke, et al. “Top Findings from the IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report.” World Resources Institute, 20 Mar. 2023.
Reuters Staff. “G7 Leaders Commit to Faster Transition from Fossil Fuels, Draft Statement.” Reuters, 14 June 2024.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. “Carbon Pollution Standards for Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants, Final Rule Fact Sheet.” 25 Apr. 2024.
The Guardian. “New US Climate Rules Are ‘Probably Terminal’ for Coal-Fired Plants.” 2 May 2024.
Resources for the Future. “EPA’s New Standards for Power Plants: What Benefits Would the Regulations Yield if They Remain in Place?” 18 Mar. 2025.
Federal Register. “New Source Performance Standards for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from New, Modified, and Reconstructed Fossil Fuel-Fired Electric Generating Units.” 9 May 2024.
Global Energy Monitor. Boom and Bust Coal 2025. GEM, 3 Apr. 2025.
Saul, Joshua. “Global Coal Power Capacity Inches Up in 2024, Data Shows.” Reuters, 3 Apr. 2025.
Shearer, Christine, and Lucy Hummer. “China and India Account for 87% of New Coal Power Capacity so Far in 2025.” Carbon Brief, 27 Aug. 2025.
Global Energy Monitor. “Global Coal Plant Tracker.” Global Energy Monitor, 2025.
Reuters Staff. “Britain to Become First G7 Country to End Coal Power as Last Plant Closes.” Reuters, 29 Sept. 2024.
Associated Press. “Britain’s Last Coal-Fired Electricity Plant Is Closing.” AP News, 30 Sept. 2024.
Argus Media. “France’s Energy Plan to Allow New Fossil-Fired Plants, Coal End by 2027.” Argus, 10 Mar. 2025.
Reuters Staff. “Italy to Phase Out Coal from 2025, Excluding Sardinia.” Reuters, 6 Mar. 2024.
Bloomberg Global Coal Countdown. “Italy.” BloombergNEF, 2025.
Clean Energy Wire. “German Government Says No New Law Planned to Ensure Coal Exit Earlier than 2038.” 10 July 2024.
Climate Action Tracker. “Japan.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2025.
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